(13) Free NFL Football Picks for NFL Week 16, 2010-2011 Season

See all of my free football picks and results for the year here (+60%).

See my free College Football Bowl Game Picks here (1-0 so far).

Last week was extremely unlucky. Being on the wrong side of a last minute on-sides kick return for a TD (Jags @ Colts) and a 21-point fourth quarter comeback (Eagles @ Giants) never feels good.

But, I won't start complaining about these misfortunes because in this industry you will often find yourself on the wrong side of a bet that still wins and the right side of a bet that still loses. So I'm looking at last week as more of the inevitable bad beat of an otherwise winning football betting season.

These types of things, much like bad calls by a ref or a weird bounce by the football, have a way of balancing themselves out. So, last week's 1-5 performance still hurts, but I'm looking forward to the ball bouncing back in my favor this weekend as it has for most of the year.

Speaking of which, I've made 6 predictions for NFL Week 16. My picks start Christmas Night. Enjoy and good luck!

 

Pick # 1------> Dallas Cowboys -7 @ Arizona Cardinals; Saturday December 25, 2010 7:30 pm

The Cardinals are 4-14 AGAINST THE SPREAD this year including a 1-5 record ATS over their last six games. The Cowboys have looked much better ever since replacing their head coach as they have been 4-2 straight-up and 5-1 ATS since the Wade Phillips firing. I'll take the Cowboys against a struggling Cardinals team.

Result: L

 

Pick # 2------> Washington Redskins +7 @ Jacksonville Jaguars; Sunday December 26, 2010 1:00 pm

Jacksonville is 27th on the NFL against the pass and with Grossman at the helm last week against the Cowboys, the Redskin passing attack actually looked promising. And, as long as the Redskins stay committed to stopping the run, this game should be close.

Result: W

 

Pick # 3------> New England Patriots -8 @ Buffalo Bills; Sunday December 26, 2010 1:00 pm

Because New England didn't cover a big number last week against the Packers, this line is probably a little lower than it should be. The Bills often play the Pats closer than expected but I don't see it this time. The Patriots won this game earlier in the year by 8 points but that was before their defense improved as it has. On offense, New England should spread the field to set up to run against the worst defense in the league at stopping it.

Result: W

 

Pick # 4------> Chicago Bears -1 vs New York Jets; Sunday December 26, 2010 1:00 pm

The Bears seem to be coming into their own while the Jets seem impotent on offense and they now have even more off-the-field drama distracting them. I look for the Bears to shake up Sanchez and for Devon Hester to have a couple key big plays.

Result: W

 

Pick # 5------> New York Giants +3 @ Green Bay Packers; Sunday December 26, 2010 4:15 pm

Even though the Giants couldn't close the deal last week against the Eagles, they proved a worthy team and I see them bouncing back this weekend. The Giants D-line will prove to be too much for the Packers and the banged-up Rogers. Green Bay has a decent defense but not so much against the run (19th in NFL). Jacobs and/or Bradshaw should have a big game.

Result: L

 

Pick # 6------> Atlanta Falcons -2.5 vs New Orleans Saints; Monday December 27, 2010 8:30 pm

The Saints have never quite looked like that team that won the Super Bowl last year. Despite flashes of brilliance, they continue to under-perform, especially against quality opponents. So, I'm done riding the Saints and I think it's time to go with a team that's undefeated at home and hungry for some notoriety. Also of note: Atlanta has covered in each of their last 6 games!

Result: L

Total = 3-3

 

See all of my free football picks and results for the year here (~60%).

See my free College Football Bowl Game Picks here (1-0 so far).